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Jan 2
Dueling Polls' Results and Internet Voodoo

The Iowa Caucus, set for January 3, is a good example of the caution we need when going over data that can make an impact on our marketing efforts.

A current conflict in two different polls reveals a lot behind them.

First, the Des Moines Register poll shows on the Democrat side that Barack Obama holds a seven-point lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton. On the other hand, a CNN-Opinion poll supposedly reveals that it's basically a tie between Obama and Clinton, with Clinton actually holding a slight lead.

The differential is too great to simply dismiss them. Someone is playing games with the numbers in an attempt to manipulate the minds of voters.

When asked about the accuracy of the two polls, NBC political analyst Chuck Todd responded: "The Register poll is traditionally a poll that's been fairly accurate and it's always late in the campaign." In other words, the numbers of the Register poll are the most up-to-date available.

Iowa%20Caucus%20poll%20results%20and%20being%20cautious%20of%20data.jpg

The point in this, as it relates to online marketing and Internet business, is we have to carefully sift through available information in order to get accurate data. There are a lot of agendas flying around out there, with some polls and statistics being proffered for the purpose of influencing people, not gathered to base decisions upon.

When it comes to making decisions based on available data, the increasing wisdom is "buyer beware!" What we need to be aware of is the motives behind data being offered. More than ever we need accurate, raw data, not data rearranged to be seen in a certain light preferred by the gatherers.

In saying rearranged, I'm not talking about putting it together in a readable form, I'm talking about bringing forth in a certain perspective that says what another person wants it to say, rather than letting the numbers speak for themselves.

We'll come back in the next day or so to the Iowa results and look at the two polls again, and which one is the most accurate. It'll be instructive to see not only which one was accurate, but the reasons behind it. The purpose is to get used to filtering through information and getting past the wishful thinking of others and to the core of what the data say.

Think of the hoopla related to the movie "Snakes on a Plane," and you'll get an idea of how the Internet can create 'voodoo' results; even when done unintentionally.

The problem with "Snakes" was the assumption that the huge viral effect on the Internet would spill over to the general population. That assumption was wrong, as the results revealed.

To battle all the potentially false data and wrong conclusions based upon this data, the simple answer is to know our businesses and have a growth plan in place. Don't diverge too much by trying to chase after rainbows based on the latest data.

The bottom line is data can be manipulated to assert something that isn't true, in an attempt to create an artificial "social proof." That's another way of saying people are trying to get you to do something based on the unproven "fact" that everyone else is doing it. They're more than willing to provide the data to back up those claims.


2 Comments/Trackbacks




» The Iowa Caucus and the Value of Branding from ManagersRealm
This year, as in many election years, we've seen a number of states attempt to disrupt the process by challenging the dates set and announcing their own. One reason why is they want to be considered more important in the... [Read More]

» Des Moines Register poll versus the CNN-Opinion poll - A Lesson in Checking Motives from TheAlphaMarketer
Revisting the CNN-Opinion poll for the Iowa Caucus we talked about recently, the results confirm what we talked about as far as not being naive about data offered to us.Here's what was said: "First, the Des Moines Register poll shows... [Read More]

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