The projection by Datamonitor that mobile TV growth will reach 155.6 million worldwide by the end of 2012 seems to be far to optimistic to me. Currently there are only around 4.4 million mobile TV subscribers.
Evidently the major reason given for thinking this type of growth will happen is the "analogue to digital switch-over freeing up spectrum for carrier technologies such as DVB-H and MediaFLO."
The other reason given by Khouri is the potential standardization of the technology that could also increase the potential adoption of the medium for TV. Again, I just don't see this at all.
It still comes down to whether there is consumer demand for this, and there just isn't at this time, nor will there be any time soon in my estimation.
The very argument that Khouri attempts to make to show this could take off if marketed properly, is the very reason it won't. He says, "In most cases, consumers need to 'see it to believe it' in order to see value in subscribing to a mobile broadcast TV service."
When somebody sees this, as far as the screen size goes, they don't believe it, that's the reason its been rejected as a subcription TV option by mobile users.
I've mentioned it here before, but what possible reason would someone want to watch television on a miniature screen? You wouldn't watch it at home, eating out or at bars, as they have large screen TVs there if you want to watch it. That pretty much leaves those that would be traveling on public transportation that would have any short-term use for the service, if they want to pass their time watching it on the way to or from work. But they could TiVo (TIVO) something if they really watch it later on.
Internationally it's possible that the cost of televisions and service may cause the subscription model of mobile TV to be the only option they have. But even then the cost would probably be between $8 to $10 a month. The question still must be answered of why someone would want it.
According to Datamonitor's projections, Asia Pacific will reach 76.3 million subscribers by 2012, Europe will total 42.7 million and the U.S. about 35.6 million.
The reasons given for that type of projected growth don't sway me at all. The assumption is that people will want it if they're educated and marketed to in the right way. I don't agree. The only question is if people want or need a tiny little TV screen to watch when they aren't at home or out somewhere watching. I don't see that many people saying yes, no matter where they live in the world.
It sounds to me like people are trying to create an artificial social proof to try to get people interested in something they just don't want. Since a phone in and of itself already offers the status symbol part of the equation, there really isn't much else to motivate them to go any further.
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