You may wonder why I ask the question: Does YouTube have a future? The reason I am asking that is that because their users are uploading copyrighted material, they are already getting requests from networks to remove all the video that is pirated from them.
It has a lot of similarities with the Napster case. You can also bet that just like
Napster, there is some company in the wings waiting to produce their equivalent video version of iTunes.
While they aren't fighting it the way that Napster did, (they remove all video requested by the networks) will that be enough for the networks if the number of videos become so prolific that they can't practically control the situation? Another similarity is that the advertising dollars of television has been going down, and the networks will look for something or someone to blame. Right now it is DVRs, but how long will that last?
One move that they've made is to limit video length to 10 minutes, which will eliminate the uploading of entire TV shows and movies. That could be gotten around by uploading it in segments if someone wanted to go through the trouble.
With their quick success, Chen and Hurley have a tough balancing act to attempt. If they just let their users free, they could be Naptster'd. On the other hand if they totally shut off the spigot, they may disenfranchise millions of their users.
To me they need to offer a way to monetize the copyright content for the networks, and eliminate the problem altogether, if they can work a deal. If they don't do it, someone else will. To do it they've got to be able to satisfactorily protect the copyrighted work.
Still, there is some hope as Nike, along with several others, are starting to use YouTube as a means to market their products. This will be fascinating to see how it all plays out.
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